Perugia U19 vs Modena U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.94 expected goals for Perugia U19 and 1.01 for Modena U19, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Perugia U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Perugia U19 win

76.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.94 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Perugia U19 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Perugia U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.94 goals for Perugia U19 and 1.01 for Modena U19, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Perugia U19 win77%

Draw14%

Modena U19 win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–18.4%
2–08.3%
3–18.2%
3–08.2%
4–16.1%

Recent form

Perugia U19

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana U19 · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monopoli U19 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modena U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana U19 · 2-0 (W)

Modena U19

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana U19 · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese U19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brescia U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria U19 · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cittadella U19 · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Campionato Primavera - 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Renate U19	6	4	2	0	7	14
1	Catanzaro U19	6	6	0	0	13	18
2	Sampdoria U19	6	3	3	0	10	12
2	Perugia U19	6	5	0	1	15	15
3	Vicenza U19	6	3	3	0	7	12
3	Palermo U19	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Cremonese U19	6	4	0	2	5	12
4	Benevento U19	6	4	1	1	12	13
5	Venezia U19	6	3	1	2	2	10
5	Monopoli U19	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Udinese U19	6	3	0	3	1	9
6	Pescara U19	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Padova U19	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Bari U19	6	2	3	1	4	9
8	Virtus Entella U19	6	2	2	2	2	8
8	Avellino U19	6	3	0	3	0	9
9	Lecco U19	6	2	2	2	-4	8
9	Latina U19	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Cittadella U19	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Napoli U19	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Brescia U19	6	2	1	3	-5	7
11	Pisa U19	6	2	0	4	-2	6
12	Mantova U19	6	1	3	2	-4	6
12	Spezia U19	6	1	1	4	-6	4
13	Modena U19	6	1	2	3	-1	5
13	Frosinone U19	6	1	1	4	-14	4
14	Pro Vercelli U19	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Ascoli U19	6	0	2	4	-9	2
15	Sudtirol U19	6	0	4	2	-4	4
15	Cosenza U19	6	0	1	5	-13	1
16	Reggiana U19	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	Salernitana U19	6	0	1	5	-17	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Perugia U19 win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.