Perugia vs Vis Pesaro Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Perugia and 1.22 for Vis Pesaro, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Perugia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Perugia win

51.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Perugia home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vis Pesaro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Perugia win51%

Draw23%

Vis Pesaro win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.7%
1–08.8%
2–07.9%
1–26.5%

Recent form

Perugia

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Grosseto · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Spezia · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravenna · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pineto · 2-1 (W)

Vis Pesaro

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Spezia · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Forli · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostia Mare · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · Perugia 2-2 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Perugia 1-2 Vis Pesaro (Coppa Italia Serie C)
2026-03-29T15:30:00.000Z · Perugia 1-0 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2025-11-24T19:30:00.000Z · Perugia 2-1 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2025-02-07T19:30:00.000Z · Perugia 0-1 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2024-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · Perugia 0-0 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2024-04-14T18:45:00.000Z · Perugia 0-1 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2023-12-10T15:15:00.000Z · Perugia 2-2 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2021-02-21T11:30:00.000Z · Perugia 1-0 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)
2020-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · Perugia 2-1 Vis Pesaro (Serie C - Girone B)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Perugia win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.