Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage · Analysis updated 08:59 UTC
Pesch vs Frechen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Pesch and 3.03 for Frechen, a combined total of 4.73. That distribution gives Frechen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Frechen win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 3.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pesch home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frechen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–35.9%
- 2–25.9%
- 1–45.3%
Recent form
Pesch
- 2026-06-07T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Siegburger SV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Weiden · 0-2 (L)
Frechen
- 2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Hürth · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Vichttal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindenthal-Hohenlind · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T13:45:00.000Z · Pesch 0-1 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2025-10-12T13:30:00.000Z · Pesch 0-7 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2025-06-01T13:30:00.000Z · Pesch 1-2 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2024-11-17T14:45:00.000Z · Pesch 0-1 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2023-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Pesch 2-2 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2022-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · Pesch 1-2 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2022-04-24T13:30:00.000Z · Pesch 1-1 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2021-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · Pesch 0-0 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
- 2020-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · Pesch 1-2 Frechen (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)
Oberliga - Mittelrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wegberg-Beeck | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | SSV Merten | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Eintracht Hohkeppel | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Frechen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Düren Merzenich | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Lindenthal-Hohenlind | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Fortuna Köln II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | VfL Vichttal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Bornheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Siegburger SV | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Hürth | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Chlodwig Zulpich | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Hennef 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | TuS BW Königsdorf | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Porz | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 16 | Neunkirchen-Seelscheid | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Frechen win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.