· Analysis updated 18:56 UTC
Petare FC vs Atletico Avila FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Petare FC and 1.43 for Atletico Avila FC, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Petare FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petare FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Avila FC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petare FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Petare FC and 1.43 for Atletico Avila FC, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Petare FC
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Marítimo · 3-0 (W)
Atletico Avila FC
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Lara | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 | Trujillanos FC | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.