· Analysis updated 10:27 UTC
Peterborough Sports vs Banbury United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Peterborough Sports and 0.90 for Banbury United, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Peterborough Sports the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peterborough Sports win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peterborough Sports home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Banbury United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 55.3% vs market 44.0%, edge +11.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.0% | 55.3% | 1.81 | +11.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.4% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 24.0% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 48.7% | 48.6% | 2.06 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.3% | 27.2% | 3.68 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.5% | 51.4% | 1.95 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.1% | 72.8% | 1.37 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.0% | 44.7% | 2.24 | -11.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Peterborough Sports
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hitchin Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leighton Town · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Redditch United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banbury United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Leiston · 2-0 (W)
Banbury United
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stamford · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stratford Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Peterborough Sports 1-3 Banbury United (FA Trophy)
- 2024-02-27T19:45:00.000Z · Peterborough Sports 3-0 Banbury United (National League - North)
- 2023-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · Peterborough Sports 2-0 Banbury United (National League - North)
- 2023-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · Peterborough Sports 0-0 Banbury United (National League - North)
- 2022-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · Peterborough Sports 3-2 Banbury United (National League - North)
- 2020-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · Peterborough Sports 1-1 Banbury United (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peterborough Sports win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.