Peterborough United U21 vs Bolton Wanderers Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Peterborough United U21 and 2.23 for Bolton Wanderers Res., a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Bolton Wanderers Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Bolton Wanderers Res. win

63.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Peterborough United U21 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolton Wanderers Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolton Wanderers Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 17% / 19% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Peterborough United U21 and 2.23 for Bolton Wanderers Res., a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Peterborough United U21 win17%

Draw19%

Bolton Wanderers Res. win63%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–29.8%
0–29.1%
1–18.8%
0–18.2%
1–37.3%

Recent form

Peterborough United U21

2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff City U21 · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 3-3 (D)

Bolton Wanderers Res.

2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall U21 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry City U21 · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Professional Development League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bolton Wanderers Res.	6	6	0	0	16	18
2	Fleetwood Town U21	7	5	0	2	-1	15
3	Bristol City U21	5	2	3	0	5	9
4	Swansea City U21	6	3	0	3	2	9
5	Charlton Athletic U21	6	2	3	1	2	9
6	Wigan Athletic U21	7	2	3	2	-3	9
7	Cardiff City U21	5	2	2	1	8	8
8	Coventry City U21	5	2	1	2	0	7
9	Sheffield United U21	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	Barnsley U21	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Peterborough United U21	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Huddersfield Town U21	4	2	0	2	1	6
13	Sheffield Wednesday U21	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Colchester United U21	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Queens Park Rangers U21	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Hull City U21	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Millwall U21	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bolton Wanderers Res. win, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.