· Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Peterborough United U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Peterborough United U21 and 2.35 for Nottingham Forest U21, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Nottingham Forest U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nottingham Forest U21 win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peterborough United U21 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nottingham Forest U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nottingham Forest U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 30% / 20% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Peterborough United U21 and 2.35 for Nottingham Forest U21, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.6%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Peterborough United U21
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff City U21 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 3-3 (D)
Nottingham Forest U21
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Scunthorpe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · Peterborough United U21 0-1 Nottingham Forest U21 (Professional Development League)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nottingham Forest U21 win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.