Weston Homes Stadium · Referee W. Davis · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Peterborough vs Doncaster Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.25 for Doncaster, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Peterborough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peterborough home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Doncaster away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 49.1% vs market 38.0%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 49.1% | 2.04 | +11.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 62.4% | 63.5% | 1.57 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.6% | 73.0% | 1.37 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 27.0% | 3.70 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 36.6% | 36.5% | 2.74 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.6% | 36.5% | 2.74 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.0% | 63.5% | 1.57 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 50.9% | 1.96 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Peterborough
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 3-1 (W)
Doncaster
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Wimbledon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Notts County · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 0-2 Doncaster (League One)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 1-3 Doncaster (League One)
- 2025-11-29T15:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 1-2 Doncaster (League One)
- 2023-12-02T15:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 2-1 Doncaster (FA Cup)
- 2021-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 4-1 Doncaster (League One)
- 2021-04-27T18:45:00.000Z · Peterborough 2-2 Doncaster (League One)
- 2019-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 0-3 Doncaster (League One)
- 2019-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 0-2 Doncaster (League One)
- 2019-02-09T15:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 1-3 Doncaster (League One)
- 2018-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · Peterborough 1-1 Doncaster (League One)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockport County | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Bradford | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 4 | Cambridge United | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Reading | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 10 | Leicester | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 13 | Luton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Burton Albion | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Blackpool | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | Notts County | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Doncaster | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 22 | Barnsley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 23 | Bromley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.