ABAX Stadium · Analysis updated 06:37 UTC
Peterborough vs Ipswich Town U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.70 for Ipswich Town U21, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Peterborough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peterborough win
76.6% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peterborough home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ipswich Town U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peterborough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Peterborough and 0.70 for Ipswich Town U21, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.7%
- 3–010.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 53.8% vs market 45.5%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.5% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.20 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 91.2% | 91.6% | 1.09 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 11.00 | 8.2% | 8.3% | 12.05 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.18 | 76.7% | 76.6% | 1.31 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.00 | 15.1% | 15.0% | 6.67 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 86.2% | 84.9% | 1.18 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 54.5% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Peterborough
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 3-1 (W)
Ipswich Town U21
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham City U21 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worthing · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peterborough win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.