Weston Homes Stadium · Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Peterborough vs Oxford United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.80 for Oxford United, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Oxford United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Oxford United win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peterborough home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oxford United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oxford United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Peterborough and 1.80 for Oxford United, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.3%
Recent form
Peterborough
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 3-1 (W)
Oxford United
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Notts County · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oxford United win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.