Balmoor · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Peterhead vs Montrose Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Peterhead and 0.98 for Montrose, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Peterhead the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Peterhead win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Peterhead home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montrose away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Peterhead to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Peterhead and 0.98 for Montrose, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Peterhead
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen of the South · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamilton Academical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Elgin City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Forfar Athletic · 2-0 (W)
Montrose
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ross County · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Airdrie United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kelty Hearts · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 28 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Montrose | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Alloa Athletic | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Peterhead | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 8 | Queen of the South | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Peterhead win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.