· Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Petone vs Napier City Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Petone and 2.69 for Napier City Rovers, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Napier City Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Napier City Rovers win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petone home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napier City Rovers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Napier City Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 23% / 18% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Petone and 2.69 for Napier City Rovers, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–15.8%
Recent form
Petone
- 2026-07-04T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Napier City Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-24T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Napier City Rovers · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Island Bay United · 5-0 (W)
- 2025-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Upper Hutt City · 2-2 (D)
Napier City Rovers
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cashmere Technical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibiscus Coast · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Petone · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Chatham Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 2 | Fencibles United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Napier City Rovers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Auckland City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Miramar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Hibiscus Coast | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Melville United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Cambridge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Island Bay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | South Auckland Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Takapuna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Petone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Northern AFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Dunedin City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Napier City Rovers win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.