SK Petrin Pilsen - grass · Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Petřín Plzeň vs Komárov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Petřín Plzeň and 1.41 for Komárov, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Petřín Plzeň the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petřín Plzeň win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petřín Plzeň home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Komárov away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petřín Plzeň to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Petřín Plzeň and 1.41 for Komárov, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Petřín Plzeň
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Strakonice · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pribram · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyrsko · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Křimice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Doubravka · 4-2 (W)
Komárov
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rokycany · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strakonice · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pribram · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyrsko · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Doubravka · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petřín Plzeň win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.