SK Petrin Pilsen - grass · Analysis updated 20:53 UTC
Petřín Plzeň vs Slavoj Český Krumlov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.81 expected goals for Petřín Plzeň and 1.47 for Slavoj Český Krumlov, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Petřín Plzeň the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Petřín Plzeň win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.81 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petřín Plzeň home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slavoj Český Krumlov away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petřín Plzeň to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.81 goals for Petřín Plzeň and 1.47 for Slavoj Český Krumlov, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–25.9%
- 1–15.7%
- 3–25.5%
Recent form
Petřín Plzeň
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Strakonice · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pribram · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyrsko · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Křimice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Doubravka · 4-2 (W)
Slavoj Český Krumlov
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Strakonice · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pribram · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyrsko · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Křimice · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Doubravka · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Křimice | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Petřín Plzeň | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Spartak Pribram | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 24 |
| 4 | Komárov | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Hořovicko | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Táborsko II | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | Spartak Soběslav | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 9 | Doubravka | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Rokycany | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Strakonice | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 7 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Nyrsko | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -24 | 4 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petřín Plzeň win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.