Petro de Luanda vs Recreativo do Libolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Petro de Luanda and 0.42 for Recreativo do Libolo, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Petro de Luanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Petro de Luanda win

70.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.74 – 0.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Petro de Luanda home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Recreativo do Libolo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petro de Luanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 22% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Petro de Luanda and 0.42 for Recreativo do Libolo, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Petro de Luanda win70%

Draw22%

Recreativo do Libolo win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

1–020.2%
2–017.5%
0–011.6%
3–010.2%
1–18.4%

Recent form

Petro de Luanda

2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Songo · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Songo · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 3-0 (W)

Recreativo do Libolo

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luanda · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Maio · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Petro de Luanda · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
5	Interclube	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	3	0	4	-5	9
9	São Salvador	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	1º de Maio	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	FC Luanda	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	0	4	3	-5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	8	0	3	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Petro de Luanda win, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.