Estádio 11 de Novembro · Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Petro de Luanda vs Sporting de Cabinda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Petro de Luanda and 0.50 for Sporting de Cabinda, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Petro de Luanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petro de Luanda win
77.0% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petro de Luanda home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting de Cabinda away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–016.2%
- 1–014.6%
- 3–012.0%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.3%
Recent form
Petro de Luanda
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Songo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Songo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 3-0 (W)
Sporting de Cabinda
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Académica do Lobito · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Lunda-Sul · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luanda · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 3-0 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2023-12-30T14:30:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 5-2 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2023-04-20T15:00:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 2-0 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2022-11-05T14:30:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 4-0 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2022-04-09T14:30:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 3-0 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2021-12-06T15:30:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 2-0 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2021-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 1-0 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2021-02-17T14:30:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 0-3 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
- 2019-12-21T16:30:00.000Z · Petro de Luanda 2-0 Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Interclube | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Recreativo do Libolo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | CD Lunda-Sul | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petro de Luanda win, at 77.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.