· Analysis updated 22:31 UTC
Petro de Luanda vs Valencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Petro de Luanda and 0.76 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Petro de Luanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petro de Luanda win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petro de Luanda home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valencia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petro de Luanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Petro de Luanda and 0.76 for Valencia, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Petro de Luanda
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Songo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Songo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 3-0 (W)
Valencia
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petro de Luanda win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.