· Analysis updated 12:10 UTC
Petro de Luanda vs Wiliete Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Petro de Luanda and 1.14 for Wiliete, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Wiliete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petro de Luanda home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiliete away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiliete to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 34% / 29% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Petro de Luanda and 1.14 for Wiliete, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Petro de Luanda
- 2026-10-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Scotland Mabvuku · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scotland Mabvuku · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabuscorp · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo da Caála · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 1-0 (W)
Wiliete
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabuscorp · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petro de Luanda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wiliete | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.