Stadionul Municipal · Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Petrocub vs CSF Bălți Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.80 expected goals for Petrocub and 0.85 for CSF Bălți, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Petrocub the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petrocub win
77.7% probability
Expected goals
2.80 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petrocub home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CSF Bălți away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.2%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Petrocub
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Politehnica UTM · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 0-1 (L)
CSF Bălți
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Milsami Orhei · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrocub · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 3-0 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2026-07-11T17:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-1 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 3-0 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-1 CSF Bălți (Cupa)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 2-0 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2026-03-04T11:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-0 CSF Bălți (Cupa)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 0-0 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2025-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-0 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2025-06-22T17:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-1 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
- 2025-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-1 CSF Bălți (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 28 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 6 | Politehnica UTM | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Sireți | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -33 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petrocub win, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.