Stadionul Municipal · Analysis updated 17:45 UTC
Petrocub vs Politehnica UTM Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Petrocub and 1.50 for Politehnica UTM, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Petrocub the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petrocub win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petrocub home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Politehnica UTM away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petrocub to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Petrocub and 1.50 for Politehnica UTM, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Petrocub
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Politehnica UTM · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 0-1 (L)
Politehnica UTM
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 21 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petrocub win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.