Stadionul Municipal · Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Petrocub vs Zimbru Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Petrocub and 1.53 for Zimbru, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Zimbru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petrocub home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zimbru away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Petrocub
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Politehnica UTM · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Milsami Orhei · 0-1 (L)
Zimbru
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 2-1 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2026-05-17T17:30:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-1 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 3-0 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2025-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 0-0 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2025-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 1-1 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2025-06-29T17:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 2-1 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2025-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 0-3 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 2-3 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2024-11-23T11:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 0-1 Zimbru (Super Liga)
- 2024-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · Petrocub 0-0 Zimbru (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 21 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.