· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Petrolul Ploiesti vs CS Afumati Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 1.22 for CS Afumati, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Petrolul Ploiesti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petrolul Ploiesti win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petrolul Ploiesti home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CS Afumati away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petrolul Ploiesti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 1.22 for CS Afumati, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Petrolul Ploiesti
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 3-2 (W)
CS Afumati
- 2026-10-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Satu Mare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petrolul Ploiesti win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.