Stadionul Ilie Oana · Referee Sorin Dan Vadana, Romania · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Csikszereda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 0.68 for Csikszereda, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Petrolul Ploiesti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petrolul Ploiesti win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petrolul Ploiesti home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Csikszereda away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petrolul Ploiesti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 0.68 for Csikszereda, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.9%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 60.0% vs market 47.3%, edge +12.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 60.0% | 1.67 | +12.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.2% | 85.2% | 1.17 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.5% | 23.9% | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.5% | 38.8% | 2.58 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 61.2% | 61.3% | 1.63 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.3% | 14.9% | 6.71 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.3% | 76.2% | 1.31 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 40.0% | 2.50 | -12.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Petrolul Ploiesti
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 3-2 (W)
Csikszereda
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petrolul Ploiesti win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.