Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 0.73 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Petrolul Ploiesti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Petrolul Ploiesti win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Petrolul Ploiesti home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petrolul Ploiesti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 0.73 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Petrolul Ploiesti win55%

Draw27%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.3%
2–012.1%
1–111.8%
0–011.1%
2–18.7%

Recent form

Petrolul Ploiesti

2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 3-2 (W)

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Botosani · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	9	2	1	20	29
2	Rapid	13	8	3	2	8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	8	2	2	18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	7	2	4	1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	7	1	5	5	22
6	FCSB	13	6	3	4	1	21
7	Uta Arad	13	5	3	5	-1	18
8	Farul Constanta	12	4	5	3	0	17
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	5	1	6	-1	16
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	3	5	5	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	3	5	4	-5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Oţelul	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	2	2	9	-16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	1	2	10	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Petrolul Ploiesti win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.