· Analysis updated 16:07 UTC
Petržalka vs Malženice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Petržalka and 0.78 for Malženice, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Petržalka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Petržalka win
70.1% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Petržalka home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Malženice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Petržalka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Petržalka and 0.78 for Malženice, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.3%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
Petržalka
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Malženice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zlaté Moravce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Bratislava · 0-4 (L)
Malženice
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petržalka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Liptovský Mikuláš · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Galanta · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | Inter Bratislava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 6 | Pohronie | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Galanta | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Zlaté Moravce | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Malženice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 9 |
| 15 | Humenné | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Petržalka win, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.