Subaru Park · Analysis updated 18:57 UTC
Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Philadelphia Union II and 1.43 for New York City II, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Philadelphia Union II home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
New York City II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Philadelphia Union II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs New York City II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cincinnati II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Connecticut FC · 2-4 (L)
New York City II
- 2026-08-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs New England II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T21:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T23:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 1-1 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 0-1 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 4-3 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 2-0 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-04-23T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 4-1 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-10-20T21:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 1-0 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 4-3 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-07-20T00:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 1-2 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-09-03T21:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 0-2 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-08-04T23:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union II 2-0 New York City II (MLS Next Pro)
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.