Subaru Park · Referee Filip Dujic, Canada · Analysis updated 10:35 UTC
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.75 for Inter Miami, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Philadelphia Union home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philadelphia Union to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.75 for Inter Miami, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.83 | 51.6% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +2.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.1% | 61.2% | 1.63 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.44 | 38.3% | 38.9% | 2.57 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 32.1% | 3.12 | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.95 | 31.4% | 31.7% | 3.15 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 60.9% | 61.2% | 1.63 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 38.9% | 38.9% | 2.57 | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.35 | 68.6% | 68.3% | 1.46 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.8% | 22.3% | 4.48 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 67.9% | 1.47 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.0% | 77.8% | 1.29 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.95 | 48.4% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Philadelphia Union
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 5-0 (W)
Inter Miami
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T23:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 4-6 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-05-24T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 3-3 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-03-29T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 1-2 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 1-3 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-06-15T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 1-2 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-08-15T23:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 1-4 Inter Miami (Leagues Cup)
- 2023-06-24T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 4-1 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-03-05T00:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 0-2 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-07-14T00:00:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 2-1 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-05-18T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 0-0 Inter Miami (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 43 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -40 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 55 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | -15 | 39 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.