Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.64 for New York Red Bulls, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Philadelphia Union to Win

47.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Philadelphia Union win47%

Draw21%

New York Red Bulls win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.6%
1–18.4%
2–27.1%
1–26.9%
3–15.9%

Why the model likes this

New York Red Bulls away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philadelphia Union to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.64 for New York Red Bulls, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Philadelphia Union

New York Red Bulls

2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-24T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	3	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	-5	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	21	40
2	Inter Miami	18	11	5	2	13	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	5	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	1	26
7	Charlotte	18	7	4	7	2	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	-10	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	-3	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	-17	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	-2	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	-8	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	-11	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	3	3	12	-14	12

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.