Talen Energy Stadium · Referee Sergii Demianchuk, USA · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.09 for Orlando City SC, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Philadelphia Union win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Philadelphia Union home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orlando City SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.00 (model 41.7% vs market 31.0%, edge +10.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.00 | 31.0% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +10.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.7% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.2% | 20.4% | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 60.6% | 60.7% | 1.65 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.0% | 81.1% | 1.23 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 19.1% | 18.8% | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 79.5% | 1.26 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.35 | 69.0% | 58.3% | 1.72 | -10.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Philadelphia Union
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 5-0 (W)
Orlando City SC
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2026-05-13T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 3-4 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-04-05T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 0-0 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-02-23T00:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 4-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-10-02T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 1-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-05-11T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 2-3 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-06-21T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 2-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-03-25T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 1-2 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-09-10T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 5-1 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-07-23T23:30:00.000Z · Philadelphia Union 1-0 Orlando City SC (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Philadelphia Union win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.