Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.35 for Toronto FC, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Philadelphia Union win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Philadelphia Union home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toronto FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philadelphia Union to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.35 for Toronto FC, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Philadelphia Union win53%

Draw22%

Toronto FC win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–19.5%
1–07.0%
2–07.0%
1–26.4%

Recent form

Philadelphia Union

2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 5-0 (W)

Toronto FC

2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Montreal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Orlando City SC · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	16	7	8	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	15	9	7	11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	14	9	8	12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	13	9	9	7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	13	9	9	2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	31	11	10	10	2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	12	6	13	1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	11	6	14	0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	10	7	14	-4	37
12	San Diego	31	8	11	12	-3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	8	11	12	-8	35
14	Austin	31	8	10	13	-17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	6	4	21	-40	22
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	43	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	9	55
3	Inter Miami	31	15	10	6	20	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	9	51
5	Charlotte	31	13	8	10	7	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	12	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	-12	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	-7	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	-15	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	-11	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	2	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	-17	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	8	6	17	-15	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	-26	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Philadelphia Union win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.