RIzal Memorial Stadium · Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Philippines vs Guam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Philippines and 1.30 for Guam, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Philippines the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Philippines win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Philippines home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guam away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philippines to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Philippines and 1.30 for Guam, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
Philippines
- 2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Laos · 4-1 (W)
Guam
- 2026-06-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-06-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Philippines · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-03-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs American Samoa · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-03-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Rico · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-12-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Philippines win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.