Jalak Harupat Soreang Stadium · Referee A. Khudoyberganov · Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
Philippines vs Pakistan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Philippines and 1.31 for Pakistan, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Philippines the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Philippines win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Philippines home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pakistan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philippines to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Philippines and 1.31 for Pakistan, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Philippines
- 2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Laos · 4-1 (W)
Pakistan
- 2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Afghanistan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Afghanistan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldives · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FIFA Asean Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indonesia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 2 | Malaysia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 |
| 3 | Singapore | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3 |
| 4 | Bangladesh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| 1 | Thailand | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Vietnam | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Philippines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Pakistan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Hong Kong | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Laos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Brunei | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Cambodia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Myanmar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Timor-Leste | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Philippines win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.