Philippines vs Timor-Leste Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.27 expected goals for Philippines and 0.79 for Timor-Leste, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Philippines the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Philippines win

84.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.27 – 0.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Philippines home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Timor-Leste away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philippines to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.27 goals for Philippines and 0.79 for Timor-Leste, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Philippines win84%

Draw10%

Timor-Leste win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

90%

Double chance X2

16%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

3–010.1%
2–09.3%
4–08.2%
3–17.9%
2–17.3%

Recent form

Philippines

2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakistan · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Laos · 4-1 (W)

Timor-Leste

2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Indonesia · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-7 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Asian Cup - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	10	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	-10	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	19	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	12	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	-12	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	-19	3
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	0	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	-2	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	-2	5
1	Thailand	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	0	2	4	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	0	3	-1	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	-14	0
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	19	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	-3	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	-7	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	-9	2
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	0	15	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	0	3	0	9
3	Laos	6	2	0	4	-12	6
4	Nepal	6	1	0	5	-3	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Philippines win, at 84.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.