Philippines W vs Uzbekistan W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Philippines W and 1.56 for Uzbekistan W, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Uzbekistan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Uzbekistan W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uzbekistan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Philippines W and 1.56 for Uzbekistan W, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Philippines W win37%

Draw24%

Uzbekistan W win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–17.2%
1–07.0%

Recent form

Philippines W

2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs China W · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-14T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Uzbekistan W · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Albion San Diego W · 2-0 (W)

Uzbekistan W

2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs South Korea W · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs China W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines W · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Thailand W · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-14T05:00:00.000Z · Philippines W 1-1 Uzbekistan W (Asian Games Women)
2026-03-19T03:00:00.000Z · Philippines W 2-0 Uzbekistan W (Asian Cup Women)
2025-10-29T11:00:00.000Z · Philippines W 2-2 Uzbekistan W (Friendlies Women)

Asian Games Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Japan W	3	3	0	0	20	9
2	Chinese Taipei W	3	2	0	1	-2	6
3	Vietnam W	3	0	1	2	-9	1
4	Thailand W	3	0	1	2	-9	1
1	Korea DPR W	3	2	1	0	18	7
2	South Korea W	3	2	1	0	11	7
3	Myanmar W	3	0	1	2	-13	1
4	Bangladesh W	3	0	1	2	-16	1
1	China W	3	2	1	0	8	7
2	Uzbekistan W	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	Philippines W	3	1	1	1	-2	4
4	Hong Kong W	3	0	0	3	-7	0
1	Philippines W	3	1	1	1	-2	4
2	Vietnam W	3	0	1	2	-9	1
3	Myanmar W	3	0	1	2	-13	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.