RSN Stadium · Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Phnom Penh Crown vs Svay Rieng Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Phnom Penh Crown and 1.96 for Svay Rieng, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Svay Rieng the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Svay Rieng win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Phnom Penh Crown home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Svay Rieng away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Svay Rieng to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 29% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Phnom Penh Crown and 1.96 for Svay Rieng, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Phnom Penh Crown
- 2026-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuching FA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Angkor Tiger · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 2-1 (W)
Svay Rieng
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phnom Penh Crown · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 6 | Angkor Tiger | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | Life Sihanoukville | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Svay Rieng win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.