PVF Stadium · Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
Pho Hien vs Công An Nhân Dân Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Pho Hien and 1.85 for Công An Nhân Dân, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Công An Nhân Dân the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Công An Nhân Dân win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pho Hien home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Công An Nhân Dân away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–36.7%
Recent form
Pho Hien
- 2026-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hung Yen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bóng đá Huế · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Long An · 2-1 (W)
Công An Nhân Dân
- 2026-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Thanh Hóa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bình Phước · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · Pho Hien 1-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2025-10-31T12:15:00.000Z · Pho Hien 0-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2022-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · Pho Hien 1-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 2)
- 2022-06-26T11:00:00.000Z · Pho Hien 2-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 2)
- 2021-05-01T11:00:00.000Z · Pho Hien 0-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 2)
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Phu Dong | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Ho Chi Minh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Da Nang | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Công An Nhân Dân win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.