PVF Stadium · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Pho Hien vs Hai Phong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Pho Hien and 1.18 for Hai Phong, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Pho Hien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pho Hien home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hai Phong away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pho Hien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Pho Hien and 1.18 for Hai Phong, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Pho Hien
- 2026-06-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Song Lam Nghe An · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hai Phong · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-22T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Viettel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 0-4 (L)
Hai Phong
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phu Dong · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nam Dinh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pho Hien · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Thanh Hóa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Nam Dinh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Ho Chi Minh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Da Nang | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Viettel | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bắc Ninh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Hai Phong | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Ha Noi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.