PVF Stadium · Analysis updated 05:42 UTC
Pho Hien vs Long An Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Pho Hien and 1.13 for Long An, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Pho Hien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pho Hien win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pho Hien home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pho Hien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Pho Hien and 1.13 for Long An, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Pho Hien
- 2026-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hung Yen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bóng đá Huế · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Long An · 2-1 (W)
Long An
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pho Hien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dong Thap · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Pho Hien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Văn Hiến | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Dong Thap | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Than Quang Ninh | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Binh Dinh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Lam Dong | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Bóng đá Huế | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Long An | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pho Hien win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.