Phoenix Rising vs Lexington Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Phoenix Rising and 2.23 for Lexington, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Lexington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lexington win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Phoenix Rising home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lexington away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lexington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Phoenix Rising and 2.23 for Lexington, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Phoenix Rising win27%

Draw20%

Lexington win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.7%
1–17.8%
2–26.9%
1–36.5%
2–16.2%

Recent form

Phoenix Rising

2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T02:00:00.000Z · H vs El Paso Locomotive · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tulsa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterey Bay · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Indy Eleven · 2-1 (W)

Lexington

2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs El Paso Locomotive · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterey Bay · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Orange County SC · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting JAX · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

USL Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	30	18	7	5	26	61
2	Charleston Battery	30	16	5	9	21	53
3	Detroit City	30	14	9	7	13	51
4	Louisville City	30	13	8	9	8	47
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	30	13	6	11	3	45
6	Hartford Athletic	30	10	13	7	2	43
7	Rhode Island	30	12	6	12	9	42
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	-10	36
9	Indy Eleven	30	9	7	14	-6	34
10	Loudoun United	30	6	13	11	-10	31
11	Birmingham Legion	30	6	12	12	-6	30
12	Brooklyn	30	5	6	19	-29	21
13	Sporting JAX	30	3	5	22	-46	14
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	11	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	14	51
3	El Paso Locomotive	30	15	5	10	10	50
4	Lexington	30	14	6	10	18	48
5	Colorado Springs	30	13	8	9	6	47
6	San Antonio	30	11	12	7	2	45
7	FC Tulsa	30	11	10	9	3	43
8	Phoenix Rising	30	10	10	10	-1	40
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	-10	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	-1	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	30	10	6	14	-7	36
12	Monterey Bay	30	6	6	18	-20	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lexington win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.