· Analysis updated 03:27 UTC
Phönix Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Phönix Lübeck and 1.20 for Hamburger SV II, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Phönix Lübeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Phönix Lübeck win
75.6% probability
Expected goals
3.15 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Phönix Lübeck home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phönix Lübeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 13% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for Phönix Lübeck and 1.20 for Hamburger SV II, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–06.7%
- 2–06.4%
- 4–16.4%
Recent form
Phönix Lübeck
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Emden · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-1 (W)
Hamburger SV II
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bremer SV · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfB Oldenburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schöningen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HSC Hannover · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 28 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | St. Pauli II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 17 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Phönix Lübeck win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.