Stadium Airfield · Referee F. Prigan · Analysis updated 17:04 UTC
Phönix Lübeck vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Phönix Lübeck and 1.10 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Phönix Lübeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Phönix Lübeck win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Phönix Lübeck home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
SC Paderborn 07 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phönix Lübeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Phönix Lübeck and 1.10 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
Phönix Lübeck
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eimsbütteler TV · 3-1 (W)
SC Paderborn 07
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Phönix Lübeck win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.