Phönix Lübeck vs St. Pauli II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.38 expected goals for Phönix Lübeck and 1.20 for St. Pauli II, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives Phönix Lübeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Phönix Lübeck win

78.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.38 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Phönix Lübeck home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
St. Pauli II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phönix Lübeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 12% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.38 goals for Phönix Lübeck and 1.20 for St. Pauli II, a combined 4.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Phönix Lübeck win78%

Draw12%

St. Pauli II win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

3–17.9%
2–17.0%
4–16.7%
3–06.6%
2–05.9%

Recent form

Phönix Lübeck

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 9-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eimsbütteler TV · 3-1 (W)

St. Pauli II

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	11	1	2	29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	10	3	2	15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	10	1	4	26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	10	1	3	22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	8	3	2	24	27
6	Schöningen	14	7	3	4	-2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	5	4	6	-5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	4	6	4	-3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	4	5	6	-9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	4	3	7	-14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	4	2	9	-14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	3	4	6	-8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	4	1	8	-9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	3	3	9	-25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	3	1	9	-5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	2	2	9	-17	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Phönix Lübeck win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.