Phönix Lübeck vs VfB Lübeck Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Phönix Lübeck and 0.70 for VfB Lübeck, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Phönix Lübeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Phönix Lübeck win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Phönix Lübeck home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phönix Lübeck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Phönix Lübeck and 0.70 for VfB Lübeck, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Match result (1X2)

Phönix Lübeck win58%

Draw25%

VfB Lübeck win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.2%
2–012.8%
1–111.3%
0–010.3%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Phönix Lübeck

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 9-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eimsbütteler TV · 3-1 (W)

VfB Lübeck

2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bremer SV · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	11	1	2	29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	9	3	2	14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	9	1	4	22	28
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	9	1	3	21	28
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	8	3	2	24	27
6	Schöningen	14	7	3	4	-2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Kickers Emden	14	5	4	5	-4	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	4	6	4	-3	18
10	HSC Hannover	14	4	5	5	-8	17
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	4	2	7	-14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	3	4	5	-7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	13	4	1	8	-9	13
14	SSV Jeddeloh	14	4	1	9	-14	13
15	Werder Bremen II	13	3	3	7	-5	12
16	Todesfelde	14	3	3	8	-21	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	3	1	9	-5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	2	2	9	-17	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Phönix Lübeck win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.