Huai Ma Stadium · Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Phrae United vs Nakhon Pathom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Phrae United and 0.95 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Phrae United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nakhon Pathom away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phrae United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 31% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Phrae United and 0.95 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Phrae United
Nakhon Pathom
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasetsart FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kanchanaburi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Muang Loei United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Chainat | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Muangthong United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Satun | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Kanchanaburi | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Chiangmai United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Police Tero | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Songkhla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Nakhon Pathom | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Phrae United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Mahasarakham United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.