Ninh Binh Stadium · Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Phu Dong vs Pho Hien Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Phu Dong and 0.88 for Pho Hien, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Phu Dong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Phu Dong win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Phu Dong home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pho Hien away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Phu Dong
- 2026-06-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viettel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thanh Hóa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-1 (D)
Pho Hien
- 2026-06-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Song Lam Nghe An · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hai Phong · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-22T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Viettel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 3-0 Pho Hien (V.League 1)
- 2026-03-21T11:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 3-2 Pho Hien (Cup)
- 2025-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 3-1 Pho Hien (V.League 1)
- 2025-05-11T11:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 1-0 Pho Hien (V.League 2)
- 2024-11-19T08:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 3-0 Pho Hien (V.League 2)
- 2024-03-30T11:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 1-2 Pho Hien (V.League 2)
- 2024-02-17T09:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 0-0 Pho Hien (V.League 2)
- 2023-08-20T08:30:00.000Z · Phu Dong 0-2 Pho Hien (V.League 2)
- 2023-04-11T12:15:00.000Z · Phu Dong 0-1 Pho Hien (V.League 2)
- 2022-10-29T08:00:00.000Z · Phu Dong 1-2 Pho Hien (V.League 2)
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Thanh Hóa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Nam Dinh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Ho Chi Minh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Da Nang | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Viettel | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bắc Ninh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Hai Phong | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Ha Noi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Phu Dong win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.