Ninh Binh Stadium · Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Phu Dong vs Thanh Hóa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Phu Dong and 1.29 for Thanh Hóa, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Phu Dong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Phu Dong win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Phu Dong home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thanh Hóa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phu Dong to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Phu Dong and 1.29 for Thanh Hóa, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–06.9%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Phu Dong
- 2026-06-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viettel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thanh Hóa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-1 (D)
Thanh Hóa
- 2026-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nam Dinh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hai Phong · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Binh Duong · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Phu Dong · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Phu Dong | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Ho Chi Minh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Da Nang | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Phu Dong win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.