Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach · Referee Pawel Malec · Analysis updated 02:52 UTC
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.17 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Piast Gliwice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Piast Gliwice win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Piast Gliwice home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cracovia Krakow away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Piast Gliwice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.17 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Piast Gliwice
- 2026-10-24T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Widzew Łódź · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-2 (L)
Cracovia Krakow
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Wisla Plock | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Piast Gliwice win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.