Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.26 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Piast Gliwice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Piast Gliwice win

46.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Piast Gliwice home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gornik Zabrze away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Piast Gliwice win46%

Draw24%

Gornik Zabrze win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–19.3%
1–09.1%
2–07.4%
1–27.2%

Recent form

Piast Gliwice

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 3-0 (W)

Gornik Zabrze

2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Motor Lublin · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-01-31T13:45:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-2 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2025-07-26T12:45:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-1 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2025-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 2-0 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2024-11-24T16:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-1 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2024-02-10T16:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-3 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2023-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-0 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2023-03-31T18:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-0 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2022-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 3-3 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2022-02-26T19:00:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-0 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
2022-02-09T16:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-0 Gornik Zabrze (Cup)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Piast Gliwice win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.