Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach · Referee Bartosz Frankowski, Poland · Analysis updated 11:58 UTC
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.36 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Piast Gliwice home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legia Warszawa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–28.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.3% vs market 43.4%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.4% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 26.8% | 27.3% | 3.66 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.6% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 45.6% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Piast Gliwice
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Pogon Szczecin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 3-0 (W)
Legia Warszawa
- 2026-10-17T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-12-14T19:15:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-0 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-12-06T19:15:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 2-0 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-02-08T19:15:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-0 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-01-18T14:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-0 Legia Warszawa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-04T18:15:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 2-1 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-03-17T16:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-3 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-02-19T16:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-1 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-08-05T18:30:00.000Z · Piast Gliwice 0-2 Legia Warszawa (Ekstraklasa)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Legia Warszawa win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.