Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach · Analysis updated 03:46 UTC
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 2.60 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws roughly 34% of the time.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa to Win
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 2.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–27.1%
- 1–16.9%
- 0–36.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Legia Warszawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 17% / 17% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Piast Gliwice and 2.60 for Legia Warszawa, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Legia Warszawa to Win is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Piast Gliwice
Legia Warszawa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.