Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach · Referee Tomasz Marciniak, Poland · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 2.41 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 4.44. That distribution gives Wisla Krakow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
Wisla Krakow to Win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 2.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–15.8%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–35.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wisla Krakow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 33% / 19% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Piast Gliwice and 2.41 for Wisla Krakow, a combined 4.44 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 79%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Model confidence
Wisla Krakow to Win is the headline pick at 47% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Piast Gliwice
Wisla Krakow
- 2026-08-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Plock · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T18:15:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Artis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.